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Abstract Dispersal of reproductive propagules determines recruitment patterns and connectivity among populations and can influence how populations respond to major disturbance events. Dispersal distributions can depend on propagule release strategies. For instance, the bull kelp,Nereocystis luetkeana, can release propagules (spores) from two heights in the water column (“bimodal release”): at the water surface, directly from the reproductive tissues (sori) on the kelp's blades, and near the seafloor after the sori abscise and sink through the water column.N. luetkeanais a foundation species that occurs from central California to Alaska and is experiencing unprecedented levels of population declines near its southern range limit. We know little of the kelp's dispersal distributions, which could influence population recovery and restoration. Here, we quantify how bimodal spore release heights affect dispersal outcomes based on a numerical model specifically designed forN. luetkeana. The model incorporates oceanographic conditions typical of the species' coastal range and kelp biological traits. With bimodal release heights, 34% of spores are predicted to settle within 10 m of the parental alga and 60% are predicted to disperse beyond 100 m. As an annual species, bimodal release heights can facilitate the local regeneration of adults within a source kelp forest while also supporting connectivity among multiple forests within broader bull kelp metapopulations. To leverage this pattern of bimodal spore dispersal in bull kelp restoration management, directing resources toward strategically located focal populations that can seed other ones could amplify the scale of recovery.more » « less
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Abstract Human‐caused global change produces biotic and abiotic conditions that increase the uncertainty and risk of failure of restoration efforts. A focus of managing for resiliency, that is, the ability of the system to respond to disturbance, has the potential to reduce this uncertainty and risk. However, identifying what drives resiliency might depend on how one measures it. An example of a system where identifying how the drivers of different aspects of resiliency can inform restoration under climate change is the northern coast of California, where kelp experienced a decline in coverage of over 95% due to the combination of an intense marine heat wave and the functional extinction of the primary predator of the kelp‐grazing purple sea urchin, the sunflower sea star. Although restoration efforts focused on urchin removal and kelp reintroduction in this system are ongoing, the question of how to increase the resiliency of this system to future marine heat waves remains open. In this paper, we introduce a dynamical model that describes a tritrophic food chain of kelp, purple urchins, and a purple urchin predator such as the sunflower sea star. We run a global sensitivity analysis of three different resiliency metrics (recovery likelihood, recovery rate, and resistance to disturbance) of the kelp forest to identify their ecological drivers. We find that each metric depends the most on a unique set of drivers: Recovery likelihood depends the most on live and drift kelp production, recovery rate depends the most on urchin production and feedbacks that determine urchin grazing on live kelp, and resistance depends the most on feedbacks that determine predator consumption of urchins. Therefore, an understanding of the potential role of predator reintroduction or recovery in kelp systems relies on a comprehensive approach to measuring resiliency.more » « less
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